MOST SIGNIFICANT ROAD ENGINEERING IN JAMAICA OR AN ENGINEERED RIP-OFF?

Is our highway deal value for money?

The North-South Link: Let’s Get This Straight

China is not building you a free road and infrastructure. In fact, it is costing us far more than if our highways were contracted out American Engineering Firms. Chinese goods may be cheap but their infrastructure is poorly built and come at a very high social, economic and environmental cost for which we will be paying for decades to come.

A 67 km highway costing US$730 million or US$10.5 million per km when the average cost from a World Bank Survey is US$860,000/KM. Is the US$730 million inclusive of the US$195 million spent on the Mount Rosser By-Pass and did the government account for the estimated US$230,000,000 worth of marl gravel used in all the elevated portions of the highway and sub-base?

The people of Jamaica have already paid for the North-South link of Highway 2000 by contributing some US$150 million in marl gravel dug from our mountains and by contributing land, some 1,200 acres, at an estimated value of around US$220 - US$300 million in value.  If the right valuation methods were used in the Chinese land deal to value the Government's contribution in building the north-south link of Highway 2000, it would have significantly reduced the cost of the highway which the Jamaican people have to pay for in tolls.

It makes you wonder about whether our governments over the years can truly say they have been acting in the best interest of the people whenever they are divesting public assets. Now, if the toll rates are indexed to the American dollar then the land values must also be comparable to similar land prices in the USA using the land-residual approach to valuation based on the highest and best use of the land. So the land can only be valued appropriately when the Chinese declare their intended use, which should have been done in the negotiations.

I have been calling for a Congressional-style budget office, as in the case of the US Government to value and price Government's investment decisions, as well as programs, to ensure that taxpayers are getting value for money and to ensure that these policy decisions will have the desired social and economic effects.

The real cost of this Chinese-built highway in Jamaica is actually around US$300 - US$350 million. The land and the marl gravel contributions to building the highway by China Engineering and Construction Company (CHEC) total estimated value is of more or less US$320 million.

According to World Bank reports, the average cost of building a Greenfield highway around the world is US$800,000/km. We paid well over US$10.5 million/km for the north-south link. The 76km Guyaozi-Qingtongxia Expressway (GQE) cost US$357 million or US$4.7 million per km (China), while the 67km north-south link highway costs US$720 million or US$10.5 million per km (Jamaica).

A story 'World Bank lends $250 million to improve roads in China's Ningxia Province ran on May 13, 2010. The objective of the Ningxia Highway Project for China is to provide high-capacity and quality transport connections between targeted development zones and urban areas in Ningxia autonomous region, as well as develop all-weather road access in selected rural areas of Ningxia autonomous region.

There are three components to the project, the first component being Guyaozi-Qingtongxia Expressway (GQE). The scope the GQE is even larger than the north-south link in Jamaica. It will connect Guyaozi to Qingtongxia on a new alignment bisecting nine major national and provincial highways. “It will also include a bridge over the Yellow River. The highway will connect two major industrial areas at the extreme east and west of the corridor as well as link Wuzhong's and Lingwu's urban areas. 

These two major industrial areas are the backbone of Ningxia's economy and the engine of its future growth. The second component is the road network improvements program. Under this component, the bank will finance improvements to national, county and township roads with the aim of improving connections to key industrial and agricultural areas, and improving the feeder network to the existing expressway network. Finally, the third component is the institutional strengthening. Provision of technical assistance to strengthen the institutional capacity of Ningxia in the transport sector through, inter alia: (a) carrying out of a study on road safety, a study for developing an optional long-term strategy for road maintenance, and a study for developing a comprehensive plan for the transport logistics industry in Ningxia; (b) carrying out training on issues related to the transport sector in Ningxia; and (c) acquisition and utilization of equipment required for carrying out road maintenance in Ningxia.”

It sounds like real value for money, Are we getting that? How could it be that the Mount Rosser bypass under French contract was supposed to cost US$70 million ended up costing Jamaicans US$195 million with 1,200 acres of land and no geotechnical study?

"They wanted US$70 million to finish the road which we couldn't borrow, we couldn't have, and therefore I had to turn to the Chinese and, in an agreement, asked the Chinese, as an addendum to that agreement, to finish the road where we are now ending," Henry explained.

The Sea-To-Sky Highway In B.C. Cost US$6.3 Million/Km. The Mount Rosser By-Pass In Jamaica Cost US$10.5 Million/Km and the Chinese did not pay one cent for the sub-base (marl dirt) which is more than 30% of the cost. The Sea-To-Sky Highway Linking Horseshoe Bay and Whistle in British Columbia have similar features like the Mount Rosser Road Linking Kingston to the North-coast of Jamaica. The British Columbia Government re-engineered the old existing route by reducing the slopes and the sharp corners traveling through the mountains to the resort town of Whistler. This engineering concept could have been used on the Mount Rosser road to save the taxpayer millions.

April 17, 2015- after conducting a parametric review of the mount Rosser Highway in Jamaica, the US$195,000,000 price tag china is charging the taxpayers is equivalent to an overcharge of more than 200%.  Applying the Parametric or Engineering Estimate approach to predict the actual cost of the Mount Rosser Bypass revealed a shocking and disturbing result. 

Base on North American Engineering Road Design Standards the estimated cost of a 20km highway should be around US$95,000,000 based on Union Wages in America. In fact, if the contract was for the entire Ocho Rios to Spanish Town a distance of about 65km it would have cost approximately US$110,000,000, based on building side bridges and tunnels along the existing route to reduce the travel time by straightening the old route to Ocho Rios similar to the photo on the left.

"Parametric estimating is the use of a subset of independent variables to predict the cost of a project. These independent variables maybe specifications, features, functions, or some other high-level descriptive elements that are used to define the scope of the deliverables at an early stage of the project when there is a lack of detailed information. Parametric cost estimating is widely used for bidding on a contract, input into a cost-benefit analysis for selection within a project portfolio, and as the initial stage of building a plan for project implementation."

The North-South Highway (Mount Rosser Bypass) is an environmental rape and butchery with open cuts where tunnels should be and dropping the road grade on top of valleys instead of spanning valleys with bridges. The tolled highway was designed more for extraction purposes than for respecting the sensitive eco-system and beauty of our mountainous countryside.  The Chinese Contractors have deleted the bridges and tunnels on the highway and still charged the people of Jamaica US$730 million without the required inspection, environmental regulation and project management standard of similar construction in North America.

To protect our sensitive watersheds in mountainous road bridges are used to span sinkholes and catchment areas (see a demonstration of bridge construction below). The Chinese just build over the watershed catchment areas creating steep and dangerous inclines. In China and other parts of Aisa, they build bridges and tunnels in their mountainous regions to protect the environment as you can see in the picture below. 

                                                                               (Inserted for Demonstration Only)

THE MAIN REASONS WHY JAMAICANS PAY SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELECTRICITY COST IN THE WORLD (2015)

Can't understand the persistent high electricity prices in Jamaica. “On his 2015 visit to Jamaica President Obama and his administration took the strategic decision to license Jamaica as the first country outside the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) for the export of US LNG and for Jamaica to become the Hub for America’s Energy Exports to Latin America and the Caribbean.”

JPS generates some 474 MW of electricity with net sales of 344 MW. It is currently building a 310 MW (120 MW in Montego Bay and 190 MW in St. Catherine) LNG capacity at different stages of development. This is equivalent to 9.3 million BTU's or 2.7 Million MWH at an average spot price of US$5.00/mmbtu or fuel cost of US$42 Million. In full operation, this is a reduction in fuel cost by US$702 Million or around 94%

The high electricity cost in Jamaica has to do with the fact that JPS loses close to or the equivalent of 1.9 million barrels of oil from having an energy infrastructure that is inefficient and nearing its useful economic life; remaining economic life of 12-14 years. The Plain Truth is JPS's Operating Statement only tells half the story. The Company loses some 3,074,410 Megawatt Hours of Electricity or 346 MW, equivalent to 1.9 million barrels of oil through some of the most inefficient generating systems. In fact, they produce around 820 Megawatt or Just over 7.1 Million Megawatt Hours and only deliver 474 Megawatt. From the 474 Megawatt produced they lose another 1,095,811 Megawatt Hours or equivalent to over 670,000 barrels of oil.

If renewable energy projects are to be built at larger scales and contribute a greater portion of the islands’ energy portfolio, JPS must institute measures to support the integration of variable generation sources onto their grids. The majority of island networks are old, with the average diesel generators more than 20 years old. Furthermore, the power supply is relatively inefficient with high system losses. There is a need to identify technical criteria and designs that will allow grid stability to be maintained. Two power issues of particular concern are power output and frequency smoothing. Power generation infrastructure requires high reserve capacity to provide adequate reliability, and most of this capacity currently comes from inefficient and outdated diesel generation.

JPS's goal should be to discover and implement the most efficient solution possible. The first stage would be to upgrade existing power plants to high efficiency and quick response turbines with the ability to deploy fast-acting reserve capacity to cope with the voltage fluctuations created by variable generation sources. The second stage would be for grid operators to integrate energy systems, such as battery solutions.

The Government and the Energy Sector have to plan and provide a concrete set of measures for voltage and frequency stabilization or a dedicated spinning reserve capacity to prevent power fluctuations from affecting grid stability. While different grid stability solutions are possible, generally speaking, there are two overall approaches: project-level or grid-level solutions. If battery systems are engaged, such systems can be installed along with each individual project or larger battery solutions can be integrated at the grid-level to manage and smooth the grid electricity.

Thermal Energy from Underground High Voltage Transmission Cables

Re-Imaging our Electrical Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure

A sustainable energy and climate change strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in major urban centers around the globe by storing thermal energy created from high voltage power cables beneath the ground for industrial processing and growing crops year-round in norther climates to reduce global deforestation and emission from the transportation of farm produce.

Publisher: Engineering Dimensions, Professional Engineers of Ontario 

Author(s): Silbert Barrett. Professional Engineers Ontario, Engineering Dimensions 
September/October 2012 Volume 33, No.5 p.47-49 

By Silbert Barrett, 

Sustainable Strategy for Funding Major Infrastructure Development p.47-49

Land-use conversion of power transmission corridors, such as the ones crisscrossing the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), offers a unique and strategic opportunity to realize the potential of underground high-voltage transmission cables. These can be used for the development of innovative thermal energy generation technology, as well as creating the potential for the planning and development of sustainable urban and rural communities. Current practices in urban development and, subsequently, the pattern of urban growth has given rise to increased concerns over sprawl, traffic congestion, loss of bio-diversity and farmlands, and the quality of air across major urban centers in North America and around the world. Urban planners and others are calling for a sustainable approach to urban development in which opportunities for incorporating sustainable development features and practices, such as increasing affordable housing and access to public transportation, and creating more compact and energy-independent communities, are the key considerations.

Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan states that, by 2030, Ontario’s population is expected to rise approximately 28 percent, a gain of almost 3.7 million people. Ontario’s population will become more urbanized, with population growth taking place in primarily urban centers. The GTA population will increase by almost 38 percent over the same period. These challenges will require new and innovative partnerships and approaches, especially in dealing with the issues of providing the necessary infrastructure to promote growth and economic development on one hand, while protecting our social fabric and the environment on the other. A triple-bottom-line approach to urban investment strategies can be achieved by releasing the potential for energy and sustainable urban development within the GTA power transmission corridors. This approach is sometimes referred to as full cost accounting (FCA), a process to ensure sustainability in infrastructure delivery by evaluating projects according to three sets of criteria or benchmarks: financial viability, social equity and environmental responsibility.

Overview

The GTA power corridor’s total network, starting from the substation in Pickering, is made up of three main branches. A north corridor (500kV) runs west for most parts along Highway 407 to the border of Milton. Also from the east, a central corridor (230kV) runs west along Highway 401 to Highway 407 at Highway 403 and then continues along Highway 407 to the substation at Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) and Highway 403 at Highway 407 in Burlington. There is a south corridor connected to the central branch at Route 27 and Highway 401, running just east of Highway 427 to QEW. The third corridor (115kV) runs south from the Pickering substation diagonally and through the center of Toronto’s central business district. It merges with the south arm of the central corridor at Highway 427 and the QEW and continues west along the QEW to Oakville. The corridor comprises some 4000 hectares stretching more than 200 kilometers across the GTA, traversing diverse urban communities and other land-use patterns. The corridor offers ease of access to all major modes of transportation, as well as institutional, commercial, industrial and community facilities.

Fig.-2: Ontario Power Transmission System Map

The proposed development would include a built-out population of between 220,000 to 400,000 people over a 20-year planning cycle, and an innovative renewable energy technology, which is expected to generate in excess of 2500 megawatts of electricity to supply approximately 1.6 million homes and produce some 220 million short tons of steam for space heating and cooling as well as hot water for industrial processing. The project would involve replacing the entire network with a more efficiently laid-out system of underground cable tunnels with smaller branches where necessary by combining both the north and central corridors in one tunnel with a 500 kV double-circuit cable system integrated with an underground state-of-the-art smart grid system. The new grid system should be designed to withstand extreme climatic incidents of hazardous floods, snowstorms, and earthquakes. The smart grid concept would envision the full modernization and automation of electric power networks to be responsive to supply-and-demand pressures in an efficient and sustainable manner. 

This would involve the province transferring development rights to a consortium that, in turn, would assume all responsibility for the planning, financing, and development of a number of mixed-use and urban communities on these lands to include district energy for heating and cooling.

Social, economic and environmental benefits

The project’s estimated cost is approximately $13.4 billion, of which $3 billion could be financed with public-private equity investments and the remaining long-term debt of approximately $10 billion secured in part against annual certified emission credits of roughly $328 million over the life cycle of the project. The environmental benefits would create the largest sustainable urban development in North America, as the renewable energy component, based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s estimates, results in offsetting approximately 12.4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. Annual greenhouse gas emission reductions would be equivalent to 2.3 million passenger vehicles, 64,804 railcar loads of coal and 5.3 billion liters of gasoline. The social and economic benefits in terms of job creation and providing a secure and sustainable source of funding for affordable housing development as well as the province’s infrastructure and strategic transportation plans are significant and supported by the project’s financial analysis. 

Policy implications

In 2004, the Ontario government introduced a comprehensive policy framework to make it easier for the province, municipalities and other public-sector partners to plan for, finance and procure public infrastructure assets to support sustainable urban development as well as to enhance the efficient delivery of public services. The Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure (MOI) was granted jurisdiction over the power corridor lands pursuant to an order-in-council (1487/2005), which took effect on September 21, 2005. This effectively transferred all powers relating to the ownership of Crown real estate, previously residing with the chair of the Management Board of Cabinet and the Management Board Secretariat, to MOI. 

Planning for the GTA power transmission corridors underscores the need for integrated planning and would greatly influence the policy debate over rising population growth trends, infrastructure deficits, and the environmental impact of unabated urban sprawl. The “Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006” is Ontario’s growth management policy framework for the entire southwestern Ontario urban enclave around Lake Ontario, extending from the Niagara Region to Durham Region in the east. Including the GTA, the plan seeks to address questions of urban growth and, in particular, how to accommodate some 8.6 million people by 2031 and at the same time ensuring the best quality of life for those who will be making the GTA a place to live, work and play.

Fig.3: Power Cable Tunnel (500kV)

The power transmission corridor lands project provides the answer and, more importantly, helps to accomplish key policy goals of the Ontario government relating to growth and infrastructure management initiatives; starting with the Capital Investment Plan Act (1993) and the announcement in 2004 of a new infrastructure, financing and procurement policy framework, “Building a Better Tomorrow.” As governments around the globe actively debate measures and develop policies to combat climate change, this concept of using major power transmission corridors to facilitate sustainable urban developments could also serve as a model for the implementation of integrated planning policies for urban growth management. 

An overall planning and development concept should seek to incorporate a land-use pattern or distribution having approximately 46 percent residential uses, 27 percent industrial, commercial and institutional, and 25 percent infrastructure and open spaces. The goal is to preserve much of the existing active open space but more significantly to create greenhouse gas emission reduction equivalency in the form of carbon sequestration by some 2.8 million acres of pine and fir forest within the GTA.

Innovative thermal energy technology 

This thermal energy technology uses the heat generated from underground power transmission cables to drive steam turbines or other similar technologies to produce electricity and steam. Water (or another working fluid) is pumped under pressure into an encasement around the cables or an external pipe running alongside the transmission cables. In assessing the feasibility of a 500 kV alternating current underground cable system for Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), Cable Consulting International Limited (CCI) asserts in its February 2010 study that “forced cooling in which water pumped under pressure in circulating pipes alongside each cable (integral sheath cooling) can absorb up to 100 percent of the power loss (dielectric) by an increase in the water temperature.” 

The encased power cable system would be in a loop, with a temperature differential between the exit point (heat exchange station) and the entry (recharge or injection) point. The temperature differential within the looped system is maintained in part by cool or cold makeup water mixed in with condensate from the turbine before traveling to a cooling tower where air cooling reduces the water temperature before it returns to the loop at the injection point. The process of heat recovery and cool recharge to the loop is repeated at intervals to be determined by load capacity and requirements. Sizing the thermal energy system will be a function more specifically of rate flow, pressure and cable surface temperature due to power loss. 

Fig.4: Concept -Enclosed Power Cables 

The use of thermal energy generation from underground power transmission cables could also impact rural economic development by facilitating the creation of “winter farmlands and tropical farm belts” in which thousands of acres of farmlands along the outer rural fringes of the GTA are transformed into greenhouses for growing crops year-round. A network of small irrigation-like pipes could carry the heat directly to the soil as well as nutrients to the plants and could also replenish our watersheds. 

The groundwater replenishment system (GWRS) is an innovative sustainable technology that can be integrated with the heat recovery process from underground power cables. This would allow the use of “grey water” to provide heat and nutrients to winter greenhouses while recharging our watersheds. GWRS is being used in the United States, and according to Michael Markus, 2011, highly treated wastewater could be used to recharge the underground system: “The groundwater replenishment system (GWRS) takes highly treated wastewater that would have previously been discharged into the Pacific Ocean and purifies it using a three-step advanced treatment process consisting of microfiltration, reverse osmosis and ultraviolet light with hydrogen peroxide. The process produces high-quality water that exceeds all state and federal drinking water standards.” 

Conclusion

Increasingly, the public is demanding greater accountability in how major infrastructure is procured, planned and developed to ensure a safe, secure and healthy region in which to work, live and raise a family. This requires government to evaluate its capital investment decisions within the context of the triple-bottom-line approach, as attention to value capture as a source of public revenue has been increasing where some governments are experiencing declines in revenue from traditional sources and others face rapid urban population growth and require large investments in public infrastructure (Ingram et al., 2012).

The region’s growing and diverse population could one day have access to cheaper, organically grown green produce and crops harvested from year-round greenhouses forming a “winter farm belt” along urban fringes, supported by underground power cable thermal energy. This would reduce the need for imported agricultural produce and lessen the environmental impact of freight transportation in terms of congestion and harmful emissions as well as developing a sustainable means of recharging our watersheds. Supporting sustainable urban and rural development with investments in the thermal energy potential from power transmission corridors will have profound environmental benefits and at the same time allow for the creation of a secure source of revenue to fund the region’s growing infrastructure needs in partnership with a private consortium.

References

ABB Group. XLPE Land Cable Systems User’s Guide</italic>. Rev.5, October 2006. Print.

Avison Young Commercial Real Estate (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage. “Investment Review GTA.” Market Reports, Winter 2010-2011. Print.

Black & Veatch Corporation. <italic>Cost and Performance Data for Power Generation Technologies</italic>. Prepared for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. p. 31-33. February 2011. Print.

Cable Consulting International Ltd. <italic>Feasibility Study for 500 kV AC Underground Cables for use in the Edmonton Region of Alberta</italic>. Prepared for the Alberta Electric System Operator. p. 79-80, 170. February 2010. Print.

KEMA. <italic>Transforming the Power Grid.<italic> p. 2-6. July 8, 2011. Print.

Markus, M.R. <italic>Groundwater Replenishment System, Orange County, CA</italic>. American Society of Civil Engineers. Web. March 6, 2011. www.asce.org/Sustainability/Sustainability-Case-Studies/Orange-County,-CA,-Groundwater-Replenishment-System/

Ministry of Energy. <italic>Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan: Ontario’s Energy Future 2010-2030</italic>. Web. April 13, 2012. www.mei.gov.on.ca/en/pdf/MEI_LTEP_en.pdf.

National Grid UK. <italic>Undergrounding High Voltage Electricity Transmission: The technical issues</italic> Issue 2: 7-15. August 2009. Print.

“Proceedings of the 2011 Land Policy Conference.” <italic>Value Capture and Land Policies</italic>. Ed. Ingram, Gregory K. and Yu-Hung Hong. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. p. 2-8. 2012. Print.

Public Infrastructure Renewal, Order-in-Council 1487/2005. Web. October 12, 2005. www.ontario.ca/en/information_bundle/land_registration/content/ONT06_024236.html

Singh, Kuljit and Dan Watley. <italic>Cable Monitoring Solution: Predict with Certainty</italic>. Second Seminar on Undergrounding of Electric Distribution Networks, p. 5.1. November 2011. Print.

Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec). <italic>Assessment and Analysis of the State-of-the-Art Electric Transmission Systems with Specific Focus on High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC), Underground or Other New or Developing Technologies</italic>. Prepared for Alberta Energy. p. 40-58. December 2009. Print.

<bio> Silbert Barrett, a graduate of Ryerson University’s urban and regional planning program, is the principal at Brittenwoods International in Toronto.

A Sustainable Strategy for Funding Major Infrastructure Development p.47-49

Copyright Notice (Patent Pending)

© 2012 Brittenwoods International

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form by any electronic

or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage

and retrieval) without permission in writing from Brittenwoods International.

HALF-WAY TREE BUS TERMINAL ROOFTOP SOLAR ENERGY PROJECT (1.2 MW)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Brittenwoods International Investment, LLC and operating as the Jamaica Diaspora Sustainable Development Initiative envision the installation of Solar Panels on top of the Half Way Tree Bus Terminal roof covering some 7,500 square meters and generating 1.2 MW of electricity. The solar PV system will be the largest urban off-grid system, generating almost 2.3 million kilowatt-hours of zero carbon emissions electricity each year to offset the total energy required to recharge batteries for bus/transit operations at the Half Way Tree Terminal and to offer Solar Power Panel Capital Leases (SPCL) to surrounding commercial and retail businesses.

The SPCL will be an important development in solar PV financing in Jamaica because they include both a solar power-sharing agreement in the form of a lease. The concept is an innovative idea to make it easier for businesses and public agencies to access solar power as they don’t have to source the upfront capital needed for equipment and installation. The goal is to fund the development of similar bus terminal facilities across Jamaica and the Caribbean to include providing solar-powered buses and a rapid transit rail system.

Project Summary

The Jamaica Diaspora Sustainable Development Initiative estimates that funding to support the development and construction of a 1.2 MW Solar Energy Rooftop Project on the Half-Way Tree Bus Terminal will have a capital structure of some US$790,000 in equity and approximately $3,000,000 in debt financing. The terminal sheet metal roof has an area of approximately 8,000 square meters and is located in one of the busiest transit hubs in the Caribbean.

ECONOMIC AND POLICY OVERVIEW

With an area of 11,000 square km and a population of 2.83 million people, Jamaica is the third-largest island in the Caribbean, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$11.4 billion. Jamaica is highly-dependent on commodity imports, particularly in energy (88% of its total energy is imported) and heavily relies on remittances and tourism, which account for about 15% and 20% of GDP, respectively.

The global economic downturn put Jamaica’s economy under severe stress and led to an increase of Jamaica’s already high public debt, estimated currently at about 140 percent of GDP. The Government of Jamaica (GoJ) adopted a proactive approach to address the challenging economic and fiscal situation and signed a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund in late January 2010. Signs that Jamaica is exiting the recession are increasing even though economic activity remains weak.

Jamaica is heavily dependent on imported petroleum as its primary source of energy and in particular for its bauxite/alumina industry which is highly energy-intensive (Jamaica is the world’s 4th largest producer). Currently, over 70% of total Jamaica’s energy mix is supplied by imported fuels (mostly oil-based fuels) and over 90 percent of Jamaica’s electricity is supplied by imported petroleum-based fuel. In 2007, Jamaica imported about 25 Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) for an approximate cost of US$2.6 billion, which was accounted as follows: (i) 40% for the bauxite industry; (ii) 25% for the electricity sector; (iii) 25% for the transportation sector, and (iv) the remaining 10% for shipping, aviation and lighting industries combined. As of 2008 (latest numbers available), Jamaica consumed around 75,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). Such high energy imports significantly contribute to Jamaica’s balance of payments deficits and places additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in addition to exposing Jamaica to fluctuations in international oil prices.

The public sector in Jamaica accounts for approximately 12% of national consumption. Monthly costs for the GoJ are estimated at approximately US$10.4 million which in turn translates into an annual cost of US$130 million. In the past 5 years, electricity consumption has grown at an average rate of 4% per annum, except in 2007-2008 when the cost of oil significantly increased during that period.

 Strategic Policy Framework

Jamaica’s National Renewable Energy Policy stipulates that 20 percent of the primary energy supply must come from renewable energy by 2030. In addition to policy, there is also an opportunity to add a sizeable amount of renewables as the country retires its dated and inefficient oil-based power plants. The strategic energy policy is based on the following principles which seek to address renewable energy technologies as well as energy management issues : 

• Security of Energy Supply through diversification of fuels as well as the development of renewable

• Modernizing the country’s energy infrastructure 

• Development of renewable energy sources such as solar and hydro

• Energy conservation and efficiency 

• Development of a comprehensive governance/regulatory framework 

• Enabling government ministries, departments and agencies to be model/leader for the rest of society in terms of energy management 

• Eco-efficiency in industries 

By focusing on the seven priority areas listed above, the National Energy Policy will ensure that the country minimizes the effects of volatile and rising crude oil prices, takes advantage of renewable resources and promotes conservation and efficiency in the use of energy resources amongst all sectors of the society. The ultimate outcome of achieving the seven goals of this policy will be the provision of more affordable energy supplies to Jamaican consumers, an improved competitive base for the country, as well as sustainable growth and development of the nation.

 Promoting Renewable Energy Development

The integration of renewable energy into Jamaica’s electricity grid is currently limited. To achieve the country’s 2030 targets, barriers to investment, especially for the private sector, need to be removed. Despite some limitation a number of major solar energy projects have already been implemented and included the following:

•  Solar PV Roof System at Grand Palladium Hotel &amp; Spa in Hanover (1.6 MW) http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/environment/A-GRAND-solar-system_16779069  

• Omni Industries Solar PV Roof Top (1.0 MW)  

• Paradise Park Concentrated Solar Project (Planned 24 MW) http://www.worldconstructionnetwork.com/news/esa-renewables-signs-loi-for-24mw-photovoltaic-solar-project-jamaica-080512/  

“High electricity cost and inefficiencies of around 40% (equivalent to 5 million barrel of oil) result in high energy cost. The combination of these and other factors drove the closure of the Jamaican Refineries as they are among the least efficient Alumina Plants in the World."-Al Binger, Energy Efficiency In Jamaica; Challenges, Opportunity, and Strategies for Implementation, UN 2011.  

Sustainability Measures  

The total equivalent emissions reduction of the Half-Way Tree Bus Terminal’s 1.2 MW Solar Roof Top project is approximately 6,410 ton of carbon dioxide (CO) per annum; which is equal to the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 9,205 passenger cars and 5.7 million gallons of gasoline consumed.  

The project's economic impact from local taxes and earning should add approximately US$2.0 million to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and create some fifteen (15-20) full-time jobs during construction. Impact during operation over the project life cycle is approximately thirty-five (35) full-time jobs and contributing some US$700,000 in GDP annually.                          

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

 

The Half-Way Tree Bus Terminal Solar Rooftop and SPCL will be the first phase of our strategic plan to work in a Public-Private Partnership with the Government of Jamaica in the development of a world-class sustainable transportation network powered by solar energy and the same time reducing the country’s dependency on imported oil. This project will act as the stepping stone to our vision in which five more similar designed terminals are built within the Corporate Area and St. Catherine including Spanish Town and Portmore The electric solar buses and rapid transit system will be the first in Jamaica and the Caribbean to be recharged using 100% solar power running on 11 Zebra battery modules that use sodium/nickel chloride technology. The batteries give the electric bus a range of 200 kilometers between recharges under typical urban traffic conditions. 

The Solar Power Panel Capital Leases (SPCL) concept will serve to drive transportation-focused urban development to facilitate increased urban densities as part of a strategic urban development goal to concentrate up to two-thirds (2/3) of the Jamaican population in the five major urban centers guided by an integrated Growth Management Plan. At the core of this Sustainable Development Initiative (SDI) is the development of a modern commuter rail system linking these urban centers. 

The objective of the SDI is to protect our major watersheds and environment from uncontrolled development and at the same time-saving billions of dollars in infrastructure spending by focusing on the renewal of current old and existing infrastructure instead of building new ones.

 Project Location (Half-Way Tree) 

Half Way Tree is a commercial and business district within the Kingston and St. Andrew Metropolitan Area. In recent years, as a result of crime and violence in Downtown Kingston and Cross Roads, Half Way Tree has overtaken these areas as the central hub of the capital, Kingston and, perhaps, the busiest thoroughfare in the city. The area has become a sought-after location to do business in Kingston because of its central location and close proximity to Downtown Kingston, the New Kingston Business District as well as it being the transportation of hub of Kingston. A busy shopping district, Half Way Tree is also home to the most well-known plazas and malls—such as Twin Gates, Mall Plaza, Tropical Plaza, Kings Plaza, Lane Plaza, the Pavilion Mall—in Kingston and Jamaica as a whole. There are also a number of prominent churches in the area such as Holy Cross Church and Webster Memorial. 

The National Works Agency, for example, estimates that approximately 250,000 commutes through the Half Way Tree area on a daily basis from Monday through Saturdays. In recent years, the area has become increasingly attractive as a residential neighborhood to young professionals, again because of its proximity to where many of them work. The apartments and townhouses are located mainly on Surbiton Road, Winchester Road, Ruthven Road, and Cecelio Avenue. As a result, real estate in Half Way Tree has become quite expensive and the area is one of the most expensive in Kingston to purchase real estate: an acre of land can run as high as US$1.5 million. 

Located within a mile of the clock tower marking the position of the old Half Way Tree is Devon House, a National Heritage Site and home of the first Jamaican millionaire of African descent. While the business and commercial areas are in the heart of Half Way Tree, the residential areas tend to be concentrated on the outer verges. A number of prominent schools, including St Andrew High Girls' School and Holy Childhood High for Girls, are located in the heart of Half Way Tree. The location also offers direct access to key institutional facilities such as Jamaica House, University of the West Indies, University of Technology Jamaica and the National Research Council.

Aerial View of the Half-Way Tree Bus Terminal

                

Strategic Development Planning 

The Jamaica Diaspora Sustainable Development Initiative’s mission is to transform the Kingston and St. Andrew Metropolitan Area and St. Catherine as the most sustainable urban centers in the Caribbean and Latin America. 

This will be achieved through the development of an integrated urban and regional transportation network powered by solar energy and tied to greater use and concentration of commercial and residential development within inner cities urban neighborhoods. Also, using existing and future development as fuel sources for biogas from wastewater treatment and as well as synthetic gas from Municipal Solid Waste. Rebuilding local roads will also be a key component of our strategic plan supported by the sale of biogas and other waste to energy byproducts. 

We will endeavor to engage all the stakeholders and project participants who have worked on the bus terminal before. We are duplicating this across urban centers with the intent to finance the projects from the Solar Capital Lease Model cash flow.

 Community Map

 Strategic Site Plan Map

PROJECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 

Solar Power Panel Capital Lease

The SPCL is a standard commercial lease having a five-year term at a set price with a seven to ten (7-10%) percent escalation upon renewable after five years for another five-year term. 

Project Costing

The total development budget is estimated at $3,937,000 or $3,300/kw. This is divided into Total System Cost of $1,913,000; to include cable connections and tie to businesses of $165,000, Modules (3,358 panels) Cost of $1,195,000, Inverter (two 500,000w) at $240,000 and Installation and Accessories at $318,000.

(See Appendices B &amp; C)

The project will also include the Pilot Implementation of a Solar Powered Bus operation to initially involve the conversion of four (4) diesel-operated buses to electric after securing lease agreement with Jamaica Urban Transit Company to supply the battery power packs. The initial capital cost for the conversation is estimated at $1,160,000 and will reduce the operating cost by 50%. (See Appendix D)  

Key Financial Assumptions 

The project’s financial modeling is based on an average cost escalation of 8% per annum over the twenty (20) year investment cycle of which is built into the revenue forecast. The revenue structure is an additive of Total Cost of Operation which is divided into Base Electricity Cost (O&amp;M and debt service) plus the Capital Improvement Cost. In our cash flow analysis, we are assuming a 10% discount factor and 7.5% debt financing cost.

Return on Investments 

From a market perspective, Jamaica offers a unique opportunity for renewable energy development as demand for electricity has more than doubled since 1970. Based on the current market and financial projections Jamaica holds a huge potential for the growth and development of rooftop solar and other renewable energy projects, albeit further improvement in gird connectivity.

 Jamaica has one of the highest per capita energy consumption in the Caribbean and will see significant growth in the use of electricity with an expected decline in the cost when more efficient energy technologies are deployed in the generation and supply of electricity. It is with this positive outlook and the ability to capitalize on future trends and growth in the energy sector that Brittenwoods International Investment, LLC, operating as Jamaica Diaspora Sustainable Development Initiative is seeking out a number of creative and gap financing from regional and local investors as well as from the Inter American Development Bank and other International Private Lenders for permanent stand-alone debt financing. 

Our financial plan includes a ten (20) year cash flow projection and investment analysis, a Pro-forma statement, and sources and uses of funds schedule attached to this report at appendices. If structured right or competitively our long term financing would allow us to realize even greater investment returns. For instance, this current model is based on a twenty-year (20) amortization schedule instead of thirty (30) would be more competitive. This underscores our conservative approach to the financial assumptions and inputs on which our financial model is based.

Appendix A

Financial Analysis (20 Years Discounted Cash Flow Analysis)

Appendix B:

Project Pro-forma Statement

 

 Appendix C:

 Appendix D:

Silbert S. Barrett, BAA, ASCE (aff.m.)

CEO, Brittenwoods International

(754) 212-7850

 

A WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN: Converting Solar Energy to Hydroelectricity

Gov't should seek ways to unlock Jamaica's private sector wealth to drive economic development beyond the confinement of equities and foreign exchange spread to finance the development of the broader economy outside of the current autonomous monetary regime. Greater participation is needed in national development by the Jamaican private sector (PSOJ) accounting for less than 23% of GDP spent on Capital formation.  

The Combine resources of JPS along with the PSOJ can build underground tunnels to transfer up to several hundred million gallons of water per day from the Wag River and other Rivers in Portland and St. Mary into the upper elevations of the Rio Cobre River using solar-powered pumps. Both the Rio Cobre and Wag River gorges have the potential to hold well over 80,000 MW in potential energy. 

In the case of Jamaica, the process is two-fold; using solar energy to have grid-ready energy and to provide a strategic domestic water supply. Water could be dammed in the upper Spanish River and Wag River Gorges, then pumped through tunnels into the Rio Cobre gorge where gravitational forces could supply water and hydroelectric energy to more than 2/3 of the population saving the government billions of dollars in providing domestic water supply to the lower Southern Plains. 

A STRATEGIC WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN

Tropical Storms and Terreantial Rainfalls pour billions of gallons of water on the island that could be captured from the annual average of 1.9 trillion gallons combine rainfall for Portland and St. Mary, in elevated reservoirs along the Northern Slopes of the Blue Mountain Range and pumped into the watershed of the Rio Cobre using solar-powered water pumps. This could provide a strategic supply of domestic water for several years to bridge periods of extended droughts as well as hydroelectric power saving the government billions in energy cost to supply water to our population centers and developing the Rio Cobre River Gorge as a Strategic Water Reserve is of National Importance to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts 

In no way can we harness all that potential energy (80,000 MW), but with proper strategic planning, we could use a significant portion (26%) of the 1.9 trillion gallons of annual rainfall, as the primary focus of this undertaking is to ensure a reliable and safe supply of domestic water for economic growth and development and to migrate the impact of climate change on the economy. Harnessing around 3% of this capacity would generate some 380 MW of hydroelectric power using only 45 MW of solar supplemented with LNG energy to pump some 946,000 gallons of water per minute from an Upper-Level Reservoir located in the Spanish River Valley at an elevation of 120 m above sea level.

WATER SECURITY IS A STRATEGIC ASSET

The contours and elevations along the Northern Slopes of the Blue Mountain Range are naturally suited for developing these high elevation reservoirs within the valleys of the six main rivers emptying out into the sea. The Rio Cobre watershed and gorge provides also a natural trough to allow tremendous gravitational force in addition to the mechanical forces of 946,000 GMP series pumps to greatly increase the flow rate above the natural seasonal flow on hydroelectric turbines to increase energy output.

Once in the upper tributary of the Rio Cobre gravity force would reduce the need for pumping water into Kingston, Portmore, May Pen, and the Southern Plains up to Sav-La-Mar where new urban development should be occurring to reduce environmental pressures on the delicate ecosystems in the Mountains.

Instead of focusing on building highways, we should now focus on securing our future water supply in light of climate change. The Parish of Portland alone could supply some 500 billion gallons of fresh water annually captured in the upper Spanish River Valley to supply the Edward Seaga's Southern St. Catherine Reservoir pumped at a constant rate of some 2,100 cubic feet per second via the Rio Cobre River Gorge. To fully optimize the system a total of four hydroelectric dams could be developed along the 60 km or 37 miles from the upper reservoir to the lower dam at Caymanas Estate, generating some 380 MW using only 45 MW of solar pump storage supplemented with natural gas and wind energy.

FUTURE URBAN GROWTH CENTRES: A STRATEGIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Supported by large-scale solar energy projects powering an agriculture farming belt providing employment in agri-processing and farming.

Could be home to a population of some 400,000 retirees contributing well over US$7.00 billion directly to GDP or a total of US$31.0 billion with total employment of close to 2.4 million people. This is how Florida develops its economy through economic diversification, but most of the retirees are expected to Jamaicans as I am certain others will retiring in Jamaica's Blue Zone.

South St. Catherine Reservoir

The South St. Catherine Reservoir was first proposed by Mr. Edward Seaga a former Prime Minister of Jamaica, the following article was published in The Gleaner, July 18, 2015:

Lack of water for domestic and irrigation use is one of the most serious environmental hazards. Globally, one billion people lack access to safe drinking water and 2.6 billion lack basic sanitation, says Abundance, written by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler. But worse is to come, they say because, by 2050, the world population would have increased from 7.2 billion people to 10 billion. This could increase the problem exponentially if no substantial water resources for domestic and irrigation use are found.

Because of the present shortage, improvement of supply is likely to be more successful from technological solutions. In Jamaica, there exist many possibilities to apply technology that will yield supplies of water where none exists or more supply where only limited amounts are available.

In agriculture, for instance, sugar cane estates are generally watered by canals fed from the main source that covers fields of cane through seepage to plant roots. However, that method has been displaced technologically by overhead sprinklers attached to a long rotating boom regulated by computers. I first saw this system in operation at Appleton sugar estate in St Elizabeth where several rotating overhead booms, each covering 60 acres, were in use. This operation was very successful in using water efficiency because two-thirds of the water went directly to the roots of the cane compared to one-third from canals. More sugar for less water!

Building The Edward Seaga Reservoir Would Have Been The Right Thing To Do!

It is not too late for the JLP to revive the concept of the South St. Catherine Reservoir as envision by Mr. Seaga in the early 1980s. We may have to relocate the newly built Caymanas Estate and realign portions of the North-South Link at Mandela Highway.

Turning to human consumption, drought conditions carry even more adverse impacts when technology is sidelined. The city of Kingston and the two adjoining urban areas, Spanish Town and Portmore, are settled by nearly half the population of Jamaica. In this critical area, some new technology is now in place to treat sewage that flows into huge open ponds where it is oxidized to a more purified state which can be used for irrigation. While the oxidization ponds are evident, I am not aware of any effort to use the treated effluent for plant fertilization to reap the full benefit of the technology. In the same area where the oxidization ponds exist, two rivers flow that could be used to provide potable water: the Ferry and Duhaney rivers. Ferry is somewhat saline and would have to be treated to remove the salt content. This is not a new technology, but it is comparatively expensive and unused in Jamaica, but it is used in the The Bahamas. In the mid-1990s, an American investor who was successfully operating a desalination plant in the Bahamas came to see me. He expressed to me an interest in Ferry. I made arrangements for him to see the appropriate minister. However, when they met he was advised by the minister that he had to get approval from the prime minister first to speak to the investor. This turn-off put an end to the discussion. But the day will have to come when desalination becomes more affordable. At that time, the Ferry River could become a major source of water supply.

The Duhaney River, as far as I know, has not been put to the test of technological purification. Or is this another cost-factor problem? If so, it can be overcome by technology to reap the benefit of increased supply of potable water for Portmore, Spanish Town and Kingston, since it runs in proximity to the juncture of all three areas. In a crisis, both imagination and perseverance must be called on to make the impossible possible. I will instance here the case of the supply of water to Kingston from the Yallahs River nearly 20 miles away. Kingston was facing the threat of severe drought in the mid-1980s. This was because no major water-supply scheme had been developed in the previous decade. To face up to this situation, I called on Caribbean Engineering, a small public company that was used for specialized schemes, particularly in UDC projects.

There was no time to use the standard approach to produce full engineering plans before the implementation could begin. So I gave approval for both planning and implementation to proceed concurrently but with the implementation of the pipe-laying running one mile behind the preparation of the engineering plans. It was a most unusual approach that required the use of all short cuts possible. The result was that Kingston got its water supply in time to avoid a perilous drought.

Today, we are facing a somewhat different problem to supply an abundance of water from a large resource base. The conceptualization of the plan was done under Agro 21 in the late 1980s by Joseph Adler, a civil engineer from Israel, and Stanley Rampairhis, local professional counterpart. The plan produced a reservoir called the South St Catherine reservoir, five times bigger than Mona. It would be by far the biggest in the island.

The South St Catherine reservoir would have a capacity of approximately 32 million cubic meters and would be able to store up to 60 million cubic meters of water annually. The source of water for the reservoir would be the Rio Cobre. A large amount of water in the Rio Cobre, assessed at 176 million cubic meters in an average year, was being lost to the sea. Of the 60 million cubic meters, it was estimated that 20 million could be used for domestic water and 40 million for irrigation.

The reservoir, along with the present canal network would solve the water shortage in the St Catherine plains for the entire 12,000 acres of irrigable land and provide water for approximately 200,000 residents. It would also alleviate the drought in Kingston by supplementing the Hermitage Dam and Mona Reservoir.

The South St Catherine reservoir would be filled and emptied by gravity to supply the surrounding agricultural lands. Approximately two megawatts of hydro energy would be produced. A detailed feasibility study of more than 200 pages was done during the 1980s that would provide valuable information for a full feasibility study and engineering design.

The reservoir would take two and a half years to be constructed and would have cost approximately US$80 million, it was estimated some 30 years ago. The implementation of the reservoir would create thousands of jobs, both permanent and temporary, and would have a positive social impact in the Spanish Town, Portmore and Kingston areas.

The study was taken over by the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) in the end because PCJ provided some funding. The more-than-200-page study has apparently been shelved for nearly 30 years. If not, where is the study and why has it not been implemented? The provision of additional millions of gallons of water for this critical area can be achieved through schemes like these.